2024 Winter Predictions (United Kingdom)

As we look ahead to the winter of 2024, it’s important to consider the complex factors that shape our weather forecasts in the United Kingdom. The following information is derived from credible meteorological sources and provides a comprehensive view of what you might expect this winter.

Winter 2024 Overview

The forecast for the upcoming winter suggests temperatures aligning closely with the long-term averages recorded between 1991 and 2020. Specifically, December is anticipated to be near average in terms of temperature, while January might fluctuate between average and above average. February, however, is expected to trend below the average temperature. In terms of precipitation, an average or higher than average rainfall is predicted across the season, with December and January likely seeing above-average rainfall and February potentially experiencing below-average rainfall.

winter 2024 predictions uk

Detailed Monthly Predictions

  • December 2023: The month is set to commence with a cold spell, gradually transitioning to milder conditions as the influence of Atlantic lows becomes more pronounced, especially in the southern regions. This pattern is expected to remain until around the 20th of December. However, towards the end of December, conditions could become more settled with possibilities of colder weather, particularly around the Christmas and New Year period.
  • January 2024: Dominated by low pressure, January is likely to bring a mix of mild spells and shorter cold spells. There’s a notable chance of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event occurring, which could lead to more persistent cold weather. However, it’s important to note that the occurrence and impact of an SSW are uncertain.
  • February 2024: February is shaping up to be the coldest month of the winter. Influenced by El Niño, historically known to favour colder conditions in February and March, there is a significant possibility of prolonged cold spells during this month.

Additional Influences and Considerations

  • The global weather scenario is intricately influenced by phenomena like El Niño, which involves the warming of oceanic waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. While 2023 has been a record warm year globally, this does not necessarily preclude the UK from experiencing a cold winter.
  • Various atmospheric drivers, including the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, solar activity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, play crucial roles in shaping the weather patterns we experience.

Hawthorn Berries Folklore

You might have heard the old adage that an abundance of Hawthorn berries is a harbinger of a harsh winter. While this is a common piece of folklore, it’s important to note that the scientific basis for this correlation is not robust. Berry production can be influenced by several factors, many of which are unrelated to the impending winter conditions.

Final Thoughts

In summary, the winter of 2024 in the UK is expected to be characterised by temperatures close to long-term averages, interspersed with both mild and cold spells. The influence of global climatic phenomena adds a layer of complexity to these forecasts, underscoring the challenges inherent in meteorological predictions. Remember, these predictions are based on current models and data, and actual weather conditions can vary. For the most current and accurate information, it’s advisable to consult official meteorological sources as the season approaches. We recommend being cautious/prepared by stocking up on heating oil, gas or kiln dried logs to keep warm and cosy throughout winter!